I think it is working!
Reputation 68371
Nothing to tell.
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I think it is working!
You can argue for or against this proposition, please do not simply repeat Russian propaganda.
I'll go first:
CON Putin has made a huge mistake by invading Ukraine. While he may achieve the "Independence" of Luhansk and Donetsk regions from Ukraine, the price Russia has paid and will pay is far higher than that could possibly be worth to Russia. As for Putin himself, at 72 years of age, whatever boost in popularity he accrues within Russia will only last until his demise, natural or otherwise. His place in history will be amongst the world's collection of tyrants and mass murderers. If there is a hell, he will be there for a long time.
I think it's the end of russia. Pictures of killed and raped children, mothers are coming out, mass graves are being uncovered.
There's Rumors this was a false flag done by Ukraine as Ukraine was there patrolling the day before the bodies were discovered.
True, but then there was high definition footage that refuted the earlier footage.
there's so much propaganda on both sides I honestly don't know what to believe anymore. The media is pushing Ukraine so hard though something doesn't seem right. Also if I was a leader at war fighting for my life I wouldn't be goin on the grammys or oscars or whatever award show Zelensky was on thats just crazy.
Resigning yourself to indecision based on a lot of conflicting information and the knowledge that some of it is false allows the aggressor to win. No matter the degree of bullshit or how well it is disguised you must make the effort to sort through it and find the truth. Here is a guide to doing that: FLOATER
Falsifiability - A false claim can be proven so with evidence. If a claim is true no credible evidence will be able to falsify it. Examples of unfalsifiable claims are vague statements and any that depend on magic, faith, or paranormal phenomenon.
Logic - An argument is support of a claim must be logical. An Argument is a conclusion and one or more premises that support it.
Objectivity - Be honest with yourself about a claim and it s evidence. Avoid falling into the trap of motivated reasoning, confirmation bias and overconfidence effect. These three mechanisms, or any one of them, blind us to evidence that contradicts deeply held beliefs.
Alternative Explanations - Consider other falsifiable explanations, narrow them down using credible evidence. Consider the remaining possibilities based on how extraordinary they are. The least extraordinary claim is likely the truth.
Tentative conclusions - Be prepared to change your conclusion based on new evidence. This not only prevents you from hitching yourself to a false claim, it exercises your skills for evaluating all claims. This doesn't mean that nothing is true, the preponderance of evidence for a tentative conclusion will push it toward truth, even if it may never be 100% proven
Evidence - Any evidence must be credible. How was it collected? What is the source? Experts may be incorrect however that is mush less likely than a non-expert getting it right. Also consider a source's track record if it can be established How comprehensive is the evidence? Keep in mind that Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary Evidence. Claims based on authority are not sufficient, even an expert should be able to provide supporting evidence. Anecdotes alone are insufficient credible support for an argument.
Replicability - No matter which objective person is evaluating the claim, the same conclusion will be reached.
This has been condensed from "A Life Preserver to Stay Afloat in a Sea of Misinformation" King, Melanie- Trecek; Skeptical Inquirer, Vol 46, No. 2 April May 2022. Pp 44-49
Well ok, but let me remind you that the US has satellite images and confirms that the bodies have been lying there for over a week.
I don't doubt the Russians murdered those people. For quite a few reasons. But I haven't seen any news item about US satellite images of the bodies. If they exist they confirm what all the other evidence and reasoning supports. Russians murdered those people.
There're rumors this was a false flag attack done by thebaseddiaries as I was patrolling Zapread to keep it bullshit clean
I didn't start these rumors I shared them, the Ukranian military was reportedly in this area the day before the massacre. Honestly I'm not sure what to believe I've seen video of what seems like a staged massacre with people who were "dead" getting up after the film crew vehicles drove by, but I've also seen reports that Ukraine did this to their own people
Me neither! A reddit user shared it.
In all seriousness: Ukraine has all the sympathy of the world right now with being invaded.
What do you get from faking warcrimes: nothing
What do you lose if a single soul of your 100 man film crew talks: a lot
No idea how can anyone make this up or share it
Generally Russians have always acted this way. It is their military doctrine.
At least since the learned it from germans in the second world war... my grandfather still talks about his sorrow from the way germans invaded russia back then :(
I would've hoped russians wouldn't do it to their own brotherland where almost everyone has family and friends
I can't really speak about the military doctrine but I don't see it as normal in amy army.
Do I know if they learned it from the Germans? Let me remind you that Russia had the NKVD, or police, who shot their soldiers in the back if they retreated from their positions. You either died from German bullets - or Russian bullets.
Deserting is ususally punished but youre right a human life is still not much worth there
I was surprised to see a bunch of pro russia protests going on in German yesterday and today. Not sure what thats about, I had heard food prices were going to go up 50% starting today.
The cheapest no brand food is truly hit with sometimes up to 30% rise. But since germany is a first world country the material and ingredients are only a fraction of the price in comparision with work hours of the cassiers or the rent for supermarkets... A 100% price increase of wheat would make germans noodles something like 10 cents more expensive. No need for you to propagate FUD.
The russian flag demonstration is a weird thing. Since it wasnt an announced demonstration, nobody knows against or for what these few people were on the street for. I would speculate they're conspiracy ridden people not knowing what to do since all corona regulation was dropped this week.
In the USA I've seen some pretty dramatic price hikes and while $2 to $4 may not seem like a ton of money that means something doubled in price, now again while $2 may not break the bank when that happens across the 20 items you buy at the grocery store its pretty significant, especially when something like bacon that maybe used to cost $5 now costs $10.
Bacon for $10 could save more lives than any Marvel super hero ever ;-)
Well in that case Russia may be one of the healthiest countries on the planet moving forward now that McDonalds is no longer in country.
Do you believe alcoholism is gonna decrease now ?
Well the West smashed all their Russian vodka, not that many people bought Russian vodka previously anyways so ther'es probably more to go around in Russia.
CON Putin has accelerated independent nations for joining NATO and/or EU. Not to mention the willingness for NATO and EU to accept new members.
When even China is wondering whether to side with Russia, you know they screwed up.
Plus 100 billion german spending for military... all the years of troll cyberwarfare to instabalize western democraties and then finding out once the is a common enemy the US and europe are still able to criple russias economy effectivly... I feel sorry for the population and the soldiers.
Its recently come out that Ukraine had basicallly no chance of getting into Nato but the narrative was pushed anyways, almost like the west wanted Putin to invade.
"Its recently come out" for people who knew where ukraine was 2 month ago nothing makes sense in your sentence.
Russia seems to be doing pretty good right now, Germany is going to see food prices go up 50% and Americans are paying higher gas prices and we'll have no fertilizer this year or next year. I'm gonna say Putin 1 - Rest of the World 0
Bruh
Even with your stupid logic Putin 1 - Russia 0
Putin 1 - Russia 0 - Russians 0
Do you think the sanctions are a one way thing? Obviosly Russia has oil and gas but the sanctions work, allegdly they can't even repair some tanks since they lack foreign products...
With your" Putin 1 - Rest of the world [including every human being not being Putin] 0" your true face really shows.
Everyone is a loser in war
"Russia seems to be doing pretty good right now"
Bruh
=> I shall call you "the hypocrite diaries" from now on.
Let's see Russia is now on the Gold Standard, is independent on oil and food, has gotten rid of porn and fast food, they're on track to be the healthiest most well adjusted country in the world.
Listen "thehypocritdiaries":
Russia is not that independent on food and no country will ever get rid of porn, fast food is nothing which needs to be imported...
Healthiness? Look at life expectancies from eastern europe (even before the war), russia is the same as the US nice if you can afford it.
Do you call isolated well adjusted? I expected china to replace all the needs of russia but so far even they are dependant on US exports so they dont want to...
On what metric is Russia doing pretty good? Their Army has proven to be inept. They have disgraced themselves with atrocities. They have united most of the world against them. They can't legally trade with anyone. Their Central Bank has had to take extraordinary steps to prop up the Ruble. People are being jailed for protesting the war. The Government has decreed it illegal to report anything they do not approve. Their few independent news organizations have been forced to shut down. Russians are leaving the country to protest what their government is doing. The Oligarchs who profit from kissing Putin's butt have had much of their wealth frozen out of their control. Putin himself has had most of his wealth frozen or seized. There is serious discussion about charging him and trying him for war crimes. Europe is even considering banning the import of Russian Oil, Gas and Coal. If they do that, there goes the last major source of foreign revenue for the Russian economy. Pretty odd way of doing pretty good.
You realize outside of the USA, Canada Australia and Western Europe most of the rest of the world continues to trade with Russia and even the USA is still buying oil from Russia, it just has to go through Europe first. These sanctions are a joke and are hurting us more than Russia.
Keep in mind that the current sanctions have been in place for at most about 1.5 months. Sanctions take time to produce an effect. These sanctions are also targeting Putin and his cronies, not the entire Russian economy. That is deliberate in order to minimize the misery inflicted on ordinary Russians. With the revelations of atrocities, the sanctions may well move toward a more general destruction of Russia's ability to continue the invasion. Embargoing Russian fossil fuel production will crush their economy. They may still be able to surreptitiously export limited fossil fuel products, but at a steep discount with serious risks of seizure. They will also be forced to barter whatever they manage to export as Russia gets kicked off the international banking system. "How many boat loads of bananas for this tanker full of Russian crude?"
"Freedom isn't free"
This aphorism is proudly shouted out by those in the USA who believe the 2nd amendment is the most important in the US Constitution. Eternal vigilance, they say, preferably armed and ready is the price of freedom.
"Freedom isn't free"
The USA has just endured yet another mass shooting, this time at a grocery store where ten people were murdered while freely shopping for dinner simply because a well armed individual decided to shoot them. Fans of the second amendment lay the blame squarely on the shooter. "Guns don't kill people", they say, "people kill people". As if the shooter could have just as easily ended ten lives with a kitchen knife.
Freedom isn't freedom
Americans actually argue over the definition of "mass shooting" and "school shooting" as if such sophistry matters to the victims. American kindergarten children are subjected to active shooter drills as part of their introduction to school. These drills are repeated at each grade level until they graduate or die in yet another mass school shooting. The list of American activities which could end with a bullet in your body now includes: Attending school, Attending a concert, Partying at a bar, Shopping, Going to work, Staying home, Driving. Nowhere is safe. Fans of the 2nd amendment think the answer to this is more guns and more active shooter training. They seem to prefer the "freedom" of the old American wild west where, as they imagine it, every real man had a gun and would travel. Such "freedom" is neither freedom nor free. There is no freedom in active shooter drills, hardened spaces and arming for the next threat. No state of existence can be free while its cost is a body count.
The Democrats control the White House, the House of Representatives and have a thin edge in the Senate. However tenuously, they hold the power to do something about America's mass murder problem. If they do not, they will have to accept blame for every subsequent mass shooting, just as much as the person who pulls the trigger.
I have started this group due a a recent "debate" I've had over fishing rights. I realized during the course of that exchange that the person arguing with me had no real experience or understanding of the purpose of arguing. Sadly, very few of us do. Arguing is the less formal version of debating. Though less formal, arguing is still a good way to fully understand an opposing viewpoint. This goal is most likely realized if all parties understand the purpose of a good argument.
So lets start with some rules:
1) There is more than enough discussion about BITCOIN on this site so no arguments about BITCOIN are allowed in this group.
2) Participants are considered to be seeking a greater understanding about some topic.
3) While an argument might start with some egregiously offensive statement, the poster is not assumed to be locked into the idea expressed therein. In other words the originator and all other participants are expected to be open to other viewpoints and to listen to each other.
4) Repetition of a point is not tolerated as a tactic to win an argument. This is a written medium, if a participant feels they have been misunderstood, asking a question to seek out the misunderstanding is better than merely repeating a point.
5) Gainsaying is NOT an argument.
6) Insulting a participant will result in the offender losing the argument. The insulted party has the option to allow continued participation.
I don't want to make this more complicated than need be so this seems like enough rules.
Let the arguments begin! Keep it civilized. I'll give a few days for someone else to post some contentious idea and see what happens.
You should start a thread about Russia.
I posted in Argument Clinic and tried to post an announcement about it in the group chat. Neither seem to have been successful.
Hmm - I don't see it.
I tried another and I'm suddenly earning Satoshi for something, though I don't know what.
Lol! Keep collecting it.
You can buy gift cards at coincards.ca or bitrefill.com as you accumulate. And of course - you can spend them here to vote others up or down.
Must be rusty. It seems to be working now.
And the season is open! This is the planetary record - so far!
Post 45's tempestuous administration, the Grand Old Party's members are engaging in a wary game of sniffing each other's arses as they sort out who is and is not really a Trumpista and how much power said cult still retains within the party. While the Republican/Royal party sorts that out the rest of us can get a sense of what is really happening by watching a few select people over the next few months.
The first to keep an eye on is Marjorie Taylor Greene. You may be forgiven for not knowing this newly elected Republican congresswoman from Georgia. But you will hear about her eventually and probably quite soon. MTG is either one of the craziest people ever to sit in Congress or the most craven opportunist. She has denounced the massacre at Sandy Hook School as a "false flag" operation. Her Facebook account is replete with calls to murder various Democrat opponents with whom she now shares the floor of the people's house. She is an enthusiastic cheerleader for QAnon and the erstwhile occupant of the Oval Office. She is so far off the scale that within a month of her swearing in a motion has been tabled to have her expelled from Congress. That requires a 2/3 majority. She will only be tossed if a significant number of Republicans agree with the expected unanimous vote of the Democrats. Whether or not that happens will be heavily influenced by what price GOP representatives think they will pay for purging what has to be one of the least consequential performers in the Trump circus.
Next is Sara Huckabee-Sanders. The daughter of a former Republican Governor of Arkansas and the erstwhile Trump Liar-in-Chief at the White House Briefing Room is hoping to lever her name and loyalty to the Orange Outrage into her own stint in Arkansas' gubernatorial mansion. Naturally there are a few others who are also interested but SHS is considered the front runner due to her high level of sycophancy to the dearly departed aspiring monarch. How well she does in the primaries will be a major test of the endurance of DJT's hold on voters and the spines of Royalists throughout the GOP.
Finally there is Liz Cheney. The Third highest ranked member of the House GOP has openly defied the loser of the 2020 Presidential race and even voted to impeach him on the matter of inciting insurrection. This has drawn fire from small hands and some of the remaining flying monkeys that still orbit his mass. There are threats of a primary challenge in 2022 and maneuvers to curtail her power. For now she portrays an aura of no-concern about the threats. She is probably right that over time she will be the hero in this drama. The question is: How much time must pass?
If MTG and SHS go down in flames while LC sails on, the GOP has a chance to redeem itself as a real Republican Party of Ideas.
If MTG is not purged, SHS becomes the Republican Gubernatorial candidate for Arkansas and LC is banished, the Republican Party will have betrayed itself and become a party in search of a monarch. but they will undoubtedly continue to call themselves Republicans. None of them will see anything wrong with that.
Its been a long four years you know
We can all remember how transitions
Used to make us proud
Peaceful and respectful too
Out with the old, in with the new
And often we’d be happy for a while
But 45 made Liberty shiver
With every tweet that child did twitter
Fake news on the small screen
We all hoped it was a dream
I do remember that I cheered
When his opponent was declared
Winner of the POTUS race
The day Trumpism died
So
bye-bye,
you un-American guy
Take your small hands to the southlands, wave the Whitehouse goodbye
You
lost big-time and now the end it is nigh
You’ll be a LOSER
til the day that you die
A LOSER til the day that
you die!
Sometimes you can't appreciate what you have until you lose it or it is threatened. The next years will be interesting.
I guess he just got tired of all the winning. The Orange Outrage Machine's infantile behaviour since LOSING the election on Nov 3rd will be the defining act of his time in office. The string of LOSSES his legal team has racked up is considerable and every one of them is a condemnation of the client forcing the lawyers to risk disbarment by wasting the court's time with mere speculation and baseless claims.
The White House Horror Show of the last four years has claimed enough of my time and energy, I am determined to end that. It was necessary to pay attention because he held the awesome power of the US President in his tiny little hands. Come noon hour on January 20, 2021 his only power over us will be what we grant to him by paying attention to his tweets and the news stories about those tweets. He will commit and utter other outrageous things to keep our attention. If he keeps it he maintains his hold over the GOP.
I refuse to play his game. So the next post from me on the topic of the Abominable President will be on January 21st, after noon, Washington time, when he officially resumes life as a private citizen who is now the LOSER of the Nov 3 2020 Presidential Election. In the interim I plan to avoid reading any articles about him. I encourage all of you to do the same. News websites count clicks on their articles and produce more on topics that collect the most clicks. Less clicks on articles about Trump will create a death cycle for them and hopefully they disappear. The only response, if any to a story about Donald Trump should be "Why pay any attention to that LOSER?
Conventional governmental fiscal policy is to stay the course on taxes and interest rates whenever possible to promote stability. Raise taxes only when needed for programs, cut taxes when possible or when a crisis requires more money in the pockets of business and consumers. Raise interest rates when the economy threatens to overheat, cut them when confidence disappears.
in 2017 Trump cut taxes for the expressed purpose of boosting the economy into 4% growth. The cuts will pay for themselves he said. They didn't and the US Federal Debt exploded while growth stalled out at far less than the target rate. Trump also hectored the Federal Reserve into reversing planned interest rate hikes and even making a slight cut in order to boost what was already well performing economy.
These two actions left the US with very little room to act when the Covid - 19 crisis shattered world economic confidence and sent the global economy to the edge of a cliff. The US federal reserve rate has been cut to 1.25%, leaving virtually no room for further lowering borrowing costs. The record high US debt load has left even Republicans balking at Trump's proposed payroll tax cut and other spending to inject liquidity into markets. In short, Trump failed to understand that using the tools he had to pursue political goals meant he didn't have them when needed to protect against real threats.
This failure to understand the value of maneuvering room explains much of Trump's horrible business record. A man who managed to bankrupt his casinos knows nothing about contingencies. His short sightedness is now in the White House and costing the USA, and the world far more than would otherwise have been necessary. Let's hope the loss is just measured in money.
virtually no room for further lowering borrowing costsJust wait until we have negative interest rates. You get paid to borrow money! But only if you have enough collateral (wealth) to start with. Poor? too bad. Rich will get richer.
Why do you think anyone could borrow? I would say it's even harder for people to borrow. The lenders are likely going to restrict even more who they will lend to in order to maximize their profits. They are paying borrowers, so they will lend to those who have good collateral and high wealth.
We are just discussing a hypothetical here. I can't see the Fed going negative and even if it did I don't foresee any commercial bank paying to loan money. Commercial rates are always higher than the Fed rate. But if they did all they care about is paying the lowest rate they can and having a reasonable chance of getting it back. So those who are willing to accept the lowest payout will get the loans as long as they can demonstrate that they will pay it back. That can be managed by limiting how much is loaned to an individual. Since there are far more poor people than rich people, and poor people will accept any rate no matter how small, small loans at low rates to many of them could easily be a better "investment" than a few large loans to rich people who will insist on better rates.
Not hypothetical at all. Already common in Europe and Japan.
Trump is pushing for this in US too. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/negative-interest-rates-explained-what-they-are-why-they-matter-2019-8-1028516867
Not only that, but DEPOSITS are going to have negative rates as well, meaning banks will skim money from depositors savings.
Really crazy stuff.
Trump is an idiot. Anything he pushes for can only be because he sees a way to make money from it. Given his business record I doubt his acumen on that as well.
Banks are already skimming money from depositors in the form of service fees on account that pay little or no interest.
Japan has had serious economic problems for years.
The article you linked to talks about Government issued (and I suppose other blue chip industries) bonds at negative rates. I'm talking about consumer loans and mortgages. Those are the items that spur spending and boost the economy. Those rates aren't going negative. As for rich people buying bonds at negative rates - paying the government to hold onto their money for them - that just proves that being rich does not make you smart.
The real issue as mentioned a few times in the article is fear. Investors will endure negative rates, they will pay someone else to hold their money for a while, if they fear that no better option exists. Asking people to believe that no better option exists or will emerge over the next thirty years (as Germany did and it flopped) is not going to work.
I think it's a boy!
I hadn't thought of the similarity to an ultrasound. This spot is reliable throughout the month of August. If you want your kids to have an unforgettable day catching fish, bring them here mid-August and we can take them out in the boat. Bring your camera.