Hello everyone!

I thought I should write a quick post since I haven't done so in a while.  I'm still alive ;)  

In the past few weeks, I've been busy working on a project related to COVID risk.  I've learned quite a bit recently about virology and how to model epidemics.  One of the most notable things was the bimodal nature of the disease (where many cases are asymptomatic) means it is challenging to contain or know the prevalence.

Now that there are a few serology studies released, we are beginning to see that the disease has affected more people than previously reported.  The good news there is that the infection fatality rate (IFR) is likely not as high as the worst-case estimates, but it's still very significant for the older population.  If someone told you that 1 out of every 5-10 older adults who get the disease would die, then maybe we can begin to appreciate it's severity.  Not that younger people are free of risk either.  The latest estimates have reported that 1 out of every 100 people who get the disease will die from it.

That brings me to much of what I observe and read about in terms of younger people unafraid of the disease, not taking precautions, or engaging in risky behaviour.  Just because younger people are less likely to die, they still spread the virus and kill others.

Hopefully, everyone is safe.  I am curious to hear about your personal experiences where you are.

~ Z